俄乌冲突一开始，西方国家就试图将原本远离冲突中心的非洲卷入其中，对此，南非总统拉马福萨曾坦言，与其他非洲国家类似，他的国家也面临“巨大的压力”，并被要求放弃长期以来坚持的不结盟政策。

另一方面，西方国家却枉顾自身带给非洲的发展问题。非洲人均GDP曾一度是中国的两倍，但自上世纪90年代被中国赶超后，非洲人均GDP不增反降，政治、社会和健康等问题也在持续肆虐。

中国与撒哈拉以南非洲1960至2005年人均GDP对照（图源：ResearchGate）

这其中，南非是非洲人口1000万以上国家中人均GDP最高的国家，可以说代表了非洲发展的希望。然而，南非也是非洲发展困境的化身，过去十余年经济陷入持续停滞，能源、粮食和饮水短缺危机也在近年频频发生。

为解决非洲面临的问题，1999年-2008年间担任南非总统的塔博·姆贝基（Thabo Mbeki）一直积极推动“非洲复兴”，促进非洲大陆的社会凝聚力、民主机制和经济增长，使非洲成为一个重要的地缘政治角色。他还是全球南方国家开展“南南合作”的坚定倡导者，现在是南方中心的董事长。

近日，姆贝基接受观察者网对话，就“非洲复兴”、苏丹局势、俄乌冲突、南非经济等话题分享了自己的看法。他阐述了自己对解决国际热点冲突问题的思路，构想出了对多极世界的愿景，并对前总统曼德拉做出了评价。

姆贝基接受观察者网对话

以下为对话实录：

【对话、翻译/观察者网 李泽西】

非洲大陆面临民主化挑战

观察者网：姆贝基先生，您一直是南南合作和“非洲复兴”的倡导者。这个愿景面临的最大挑战是什么？

姆贝基：南南合作从初步设想发展到今日，这个愿景仍面临挑战，即南方国家若想成功，就必须一起成功、统一行动，因为有许多需要共同解决的问题。要想在全球范围实现2030可持续发展目标，我们就不能落下任何一个国家；如果有哪个国家遭到遗弃，这个国家必定来自南方。为确保这种情况不会发生，我们需要南南合作。这将是一个持续的挑战。

提出南南合作，也与“非洲复兴”倡议有关，因为过去奴隶制和殖民主义的影响仍然遗存，尤其在非洲大陆。我们需要克服这一点，这意味着解决欠发展问题、贫困问题、国际边缘化等问题。“非洲复兴”必须要解决这些问题，并将有助于促进与之类似的南南合作。

观察者网：“非洲复兴”面临挑战的一个具体例证是当下的苏丹武装冲突。您认为如何才能解决这个问题？

姆贝基：这是一个非常具体的问题，是苏丹国内两个武装机构——苏丹武装部队和快速支援部队——之间的冲突。

首先要做的就是解决平民的担忧，因为冲突已经给平民带来了灾难。冲突的主要热点地区首都喀土穆正面临饮水短缺。因此，人道主义停火是非常重要的，这样平民的基本诉求才能得到解决。

第二步当然是解决冲突本身，这与实现苏丹国内的军事机制改革有关。这是一个老问题了，多年来一直困扰着苏丹。许多人已经正确地提出，一个国家不应有两个武装编队。因此，快速支援部队与苏丹武装部队必须合并，这需要武装部队之间进行谈判，但应在人道主义援助问题得到解决后完成。

苏丹首都喀土穆持续发生武装冲突（图源：视觉中国）

最后，我们还必须谈到苏丹的民主化进程。和谈必须确立苏丹将成为一个民主国家，确保自前总统巴希尔（Omar al-Bashir）下台以来的过渡进程得以持续下去。我们必须回到这一进程，但首先需要实现停火。

观察者网：您认为这反映了非洲发展过程面临的普遍挑战，还是只反映了苏丹特有的问题？

姆贝基：这是苏丹特有的问题，其他非洲国家国内没有两支官方军队。

观察者网：但最近，多个萨赫勒地区（即撒哈拉沙漠南部边沿地区）国家发生了军事政变，例如布基纳法索、马里等。军队推翻文官政府，似乎在非洲是很广泛的现象。

姆贝基：非洲大陆确实面临民主化的挑战，除了苏丹，还有您提到马里、尼日尔、布基纳法索等等，这些国家发生的军事政变都证明他们尚未建立稳定的民主政体。

非洲联盟在这个问题上出台过多个立场文件，现在非联必须采取果断行动，向这些非洲国家提供支持，以落实非联在民主问题上的现有政策，避免军事政变等问题。

观察者网：继任您的南非前总统祖马在您所奠定的外交政策基础上，推动南非于2011年正式成为金砖国家一员。既然南方中心与金砖国家都致力于促进发展中国家利益，您认为两个机构应如何协调与互动？

姆贝基：南方中心是南方国家的资源中心，某种意义上是南方国家的智囊团，能够提出并阐述南方国家在国际场合的互动和谈判中应该采取的立场，例如在贸易、知识产权、人权等问题上，在南方国家与世贸组织、世卫组织等机构进行谈判协商时，为这些国家提供相关信息。这是南方中心的一个具体作用，也是一个非常重要的作用。

金砖国家在实操层面应对的是与南方中心同样的问题。比如说，金砖国家新开发银行有一个特定的任务，即一些南方国家可以借用资金来发展经济。对于南方中心来说，可以借鉴新开发银行提供的经验，帮助南方中心成员国。

4月13日，新开发银行行长迪尔玛·罗塞夫就任（图源：AFP）

为了实现自己的价值，南方中心需要非常密切地关注金砖国家的举措，将其成功的经验反馈给其他南方国家。因此，两个组织建立联系是很重要的。

作为非洲人，我们的第一反应是呼吁停火

观察者网：南非一直在联合国许多关于俄乌冲突的决议中投弃权票，并因此遭到部分西方媒体和政府的批评。南非投弃权票的原因是什么？您对这场冲突有什么看法？

姆贝基：就俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的交战，我认为南非政府采取的立场是正确的。非洲的经验是，当任何非洲国家爆发冲突，比如现在的苏丹，作为非洲人，我们的第一反应是呼吁各方停火，然后再仔细研究冲突背景，到底是什么导致冲突爆发，从而找到解决方案。

在非洲，我们从不一开始就指责某一方。现在需要的是解决冲突，而不是一开始就说，“你是错的”、“你是对的”，而应一开始就强调，双方都应停止射击。

在谈判过程中，我们才会讨论哪些举措是错误的，哪些是正当的，什么应该做，什么不应该做。（对于非洲来说），这种思维方式某种意义上是发自直觉。南非就俄乌冲突的立场，与其对非洲每一场冲突的立场是一致：停止战斗，让我们走向和平。至于追责，这是以后的事。

巴赫穆特的废墟（图源：AP）

观察者网：您曾斡旋津巴布韦执政党“津巴布韦非洲民族联盟－爱国阵线”与反对派之间的对立，即所谓的“安静外交”。您当时最重要的指导原则是什么？您认为类似的思维可否应用于解决俄乌冲突？

姆贝基：津巴布韦有严重的政治、经济等方面的问题。解决这些问题的方法，是让津巴布韦人自己相互接触，共同定义国家的未来。因此，我们在促进津巴布韦谈判的过程中，首先是确保政府和反对派坐在一起，共同定义国家的问题，共同找到解决方案。南非不能从外部介入，指令津巴布韦人坐到一起，说教他们应如何解决他们自己的问题，这样达成的协议不会持久的，需要冲突方自主达成的协议，这是一劳永解决问题的唯一途径。

这就是为什么俄乌冲突必须以同样的方式处理。冲突没有武力解决方案，必须由俄罗斯人和乌克兰人以及其他相关方——如美国人——同坐一桌，并讨论是什么导致了这场战争？问题出在哪里？如何解决？

观察者网：俄乌冲突一周年之际，中国公布了一个十二点和平计划。您对这一方案有何看法？

姆贝基：这是一个非常好的和平出发点。没有任何一方应强求中国做出任何承诺，也不应要求中国支持冲突的某一方。中国只是说，我们需要停止这场冲突，这为何不能成为我们遵循的基础？我认为中国是对的。

此外，我认为中国确实是一个非常合适的调停方。但有些人试图将此政治化，强求中国站队。中国的立场是，不，我们需要的是停止战争（而非站队）。中国对交火双方提出了些建议，让大家走和平之路。我认为这是正确的。

中国政府欧亚事务特别代表李辉16日会见乌克兰外交部长库列巴

观察者网：这也是中国一贯的立场，而最近国际上关于“脱钩”和“对抗”的讨论越来越多，关键似乎在于美国希望强推西方民主制度，而中国则认为发展才是最重要的民主权利。您如何看待双方的说法？

姆贝基：我认为当下突显的讨论主题，实际上是关于多极化与单极化，多边主义与单边主义的对立问题。显然，正确的途径是多极化，这意味着没有人能够单方面指使各国应该做什么、怎么做。世界需要发展，而发展又有不同的道路，比如中国就会有独特的发展道路和思维，而另一个国家可能有不同的看法，这必须得到允许。

关键是，我们需要全世界，包括美国、中国、俄罗斯、南非等国都承认，我们想要建立一个多边和多极的世界。如果我们能把大家团结起来，就有可能实现全球稳定，统一人们对世界未来的愿景。这是我们需要做的核心工作。

观察者网：探寻适合自身的发展道路，这也是南非面临的问题，您的前任纳尔逊·曼德拉（Nelson Mandela）就是这样的先驱。曼德拉我们已经很熟悉了，您曾担任过他的副总统，您接触到的他还有哪些不为人所知的故事？鉴于南非近年经济增速令人失望——自您2008年卸任以来，南非人均GDP基本持平——有些人试图将责任归咎于曼德拉；您认为他留给后人什么样的政治遗产，我们应该如何看待他？

姆贝基：我认为外界对曼德拉的印象基本上是正确的。他是一名领军的解放战士，将南非从种族隔离制度中解放出来。为此，他在监狱里呆了27年，但从未放弃信念、从未投降。

曼德拉（左）出席继任者姆贝基（右）1999年的就职典礼（图源：AFP）

他是解放事业的杰出代表人物，与非国大一起正确认识到南非有一个人口比例较大的少数民族人口，即白人移民。翻阅非洲大陆的历史，阿尔及利亚曾有非常大的法国殖民人口，但阿尔及利亚独立后，法国人都离开了，回到了法国。在葡萄牙的殖民地，如安哥拉、莫桑比克，葡萄牙殖民者在后者独立后都回到了葡萄牙。肯尼亚的英国人也是如此。

但是在南非独立后，那些早期白人移民人口哪儿都没有去，因为他们现在也是南非人了，也因此给南非带来了民族和解问题。许多人曾惨遭严酷的压迫，但现在大家都是一个国家的公民，人们应该如何共处？在这一充满冲突和分裂的背景下，我们仍然需要建立属于南非全体人民的民主政府。曼德拉在解决这一特殊挑战的过程中发挥了非常重要的作用，解决方案也非常具有“南非特色”。

正如你提到的，南非经济状况很糟糕。这与曼德拉无关，而是与南非的历史有关，与民族和解进程有关。因为过去和现在国家的财富都掌握在殖民者手中，他们控制了经济命脉，而黑人现在控制了政治权力。在这种情况下，我们需要做的是什么？我们需要让这些拥有财富的人与控制政治的黑人一样，同样忠于国家的未来。这一直是矛盾之所在。在南非民主化之后的许多年内，很多白人资本家对南非的未来没有信心，他们不愿意投资，因为（他们担心）未来会很糟糕。

南非人均GDP走势，数据自世界银行（图源：TradingEconomics）

最根本的是历史问题，南非的历史导致白人拥有大量财富，在相当程度上掌握有关经济的决策，南非经济所需要的投资也在白人手中。所以，我们要说服他们：作为南非公民，你们有责任投资自己国家的经济，而非担心未来。这是经济危机的核心所在。现在，南非的整体气氛发生了变化，财富的拥有者已准备投资南非经济。（经济状况不佳）与曼德拉没有关系，这是南非的历史问题。

英文原文：

Guancha: Mr Mbeki, you have been a champion of South-South cooperation and an “African Renaissance”. What are the greatest challenges to this vision, especially in Africa?

Mbeki: When the South-South cooperation process was visualized, and where we are today, the challenge still remains that, for the countries of the south to succeed, they must succeed together, they must act together, because there are all of these issues that need to be addressed. If, for instance, you look at the Sustainable Development Goals that we must achieve by 2030, and nobody must be left behind; the people who would be left behind, if anybody is going to be left behind, are from countries of the South. And in order to ensure that doesn't happen, we need that South-South cooperation.

So that's a continuing challenge. It's related to the matter you were raising of an African renaissance, a rebirth of the continent, because all of the legacy of the past, legacies of slavery, legacy of colonialism remains, that legacy remains on the continent. You need to overcome that, which means addressing matters of under-development, matters of poverty, matters of internationally marginalization. Those challenges remain. The African renaissance has got to address all of those issues. Africa's renaissance would contribute to the same matter of South-South cooperation.

Guancha: A specific example of the challenges that African renaissance faces would be the conflict in Sudan. How do you think this can be resolved?

Mbeki: There's a specific current matter of the conflict that's going on between two state formations, these armed groups, the Sudan armed forces and the (Rapid) Support Forces. They are both official organs of state. The first thing to do then is to address the concerns of the civilian population, because the conflict has resulted in disaster for the civilians. Reportedly, the capital city Khartoum, where a lot of the conflict is taking place, is running out of water. So a humanitarian ceasefire is very important, so that the needs of the civilian population can then get addressed. That's the first step.

The second step of course is to address the conflict itself, which has to do in part with effecting a security sector reform. It's an old problem of Sudan, has come with Sudan over the years, but we need to reform the security sector, and the matter has been raised correctly that you should not have the two armed formations. The Rapid Support Forces must be integrated with the Sudanese armed forces. That matter has to be done, but it requires a negotiation among the armed forces, but that will follow after this matter about humanitarian assistance has been addressed. Altogether, you then have to come to this matter of the democratization of Sudan, a negotiated process in Sudan, which must address the establishment of Sudan as a democratic country, which this transitional process since the removal of president Bashir has been about. We must go back to that. But it requires a ceasefire in the first instance.

Guancha: Do you think this reflects broader challenges with Africa's development or just specific issues with Sudan?

Mbeki: It's a specific matter regarding Sudan, there's no other African country which has got two official armies.

Guancha: But recently, a number of Sahel countries have seen military coups and attempted military coups, for example, Burkina faso, Mali, etc. On military usurping civilian government, there does seem to be a broader pattern.

Mbeki: You've got a challenge on the continent. It's also facing Sudan, this democratization matter, (and) the countries you mention, whether it's Mali, Niger or Burkina Faso and so on. The matter that arises out of these military coups is that we have not established stable democratic systems. The African Union has got all manner of policy positions on the same question. It means the continent must then act decisively to implement what are already established positions about the democratization of the continent. And the African union must lend its weight to each of these African countries to implement existing policies of the African union on the matter of democracy, so that we don't have military coups and all of that.

Guancha: Your successor as South Africa's president, Mr Zuma, building on the foreign policy foundation that you had laid, formally joined BRICS in 2011. As two institutions both focused on promoting the interest of developing countries and the global south, how should the work of BRICS and the South Centre intersect and interact in your view?

Mbeki: The South Centre is a is a resource center for the countries of the south, in a sense a think tank of the countries of the South, to be able to make and elaborate the positions that countries of the south should take mainly in their interaction and negotiations within, for instance, the UN context, whether it's trade matters or intellectual property or human rights issues. The South Centre is that kind of resource center, to feed into the countries of the South, as they engage these negotiations with the WTO, WHO globally. It's a specific role to the South Centre and a very important role.

BRICS addresses same questions on a practical basis. For instance, you have the BRICS bank, which has got a particular mandate which countries of the South can access and do access for their development purposes. That kind of experience needs to feed into the South Centre, that our experiences with regards to meeting these development processes from our own banks as exemplified by the BRICS bank’s experience.

The South Centre, for its own purposes, needs to be watching very closely what BRICS is doing in order to feed the positive experiences of BRICS into the rest of the countries of the South. So that connection is important.

Guancha: South Africa has consistently voted to abstain in numerous UN resolutions on the War in Ukraine, and was criticized by Western media and governments for it. What is the reason for South Africa’s abstain vote? What is your view of this conflict?

Mbeki: I think the position that the South African government has taken is correct. There's a war that's going on between Russia and Ukraine. It's an African experience: when a conflict breaks out in any African country, like Sudan, the first thing that we do as Africans is to say, stop the guns, stop shooting, so that we can then look at the matter, what caused the shooting, find a solution. We never ever on the continent starts those processes by blaming one side or the other. There is a conflict to be resolved. And you don't start off by saying, no, you are wrong and you are right. We start with saying let's stop the shooting. It's in the course of the negotiations that we discuss the matter of what was wrong, what was right, what should be done, what should not be done. It's in a sense instinctive. What South Africa says with regards to Russia and Ukraine, it has said with every conflict on the African continent. Stop the fighting. Let's bring about peace. The matter of attributing blame for that comes later.

Guancha: You were the primary mediator in the conflict between Zimbabwe’s governing ZANU-PF and the opposition, and what was known as the “quiet diplomacy”. What were the most important guiding principles of your approach? Do you think similar thinking could be applied to resolve the international conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

Mbei: Zimbabwe's got serious problems: political, economic (etc). And the way to solve those problems is to get the Zimbabweans themselves to engage one another, to define the future of their country. So our task, facilitate the Zimbabwe negotiations, was to make sure that the government and the opposition, they get together, between them identify what the problems are, and together find a solution. That's the only way you are going to find a permanent solution. South Africa cannot come from the outside and say, Zimbabweans, sit together and we are going to tell you how to solve your problems. That agreement would never last. You need an agreement from the belligerents. That's why the conflict in Ukraine has got to be dealt with in the same way, it’s not going to be resolved by a use of force, it's got to be resolved by the Russians and the Ukrainians and other people concerned, like the Americans, sitting together and saying, what is it that caused this war? What's the problem? How do you resolve it? And so the belligerents, together with whoever else, they must be the ones to produce a solution. That is what is necessary with regards to the conflict in Europe.

Guancha: China has recently published a twelve points plan outlining how to move towards peace in Ukraine. Do you think this might be a good starting approach for peace? What is your view of this?

Mbeki: It’s a very good starting point. And nobody should be requiring that the People's republic of China should say anything which suggests a commitment, more support from one side or the other. But to say we need to stop this conflict, why don't we follow this basis at the start? I think it's correct. And I think actually China would be a very good facilitator of a process like that. But I think some people are politicizing this matter, in this sense of requirement China to take sides. No, China is saying that we need to stop this war. We've got certain proposals to make to the belligerents. Let's take that route. And I think that is correct.

Guancha: Recently, there has been increased talk of decoupling and confrontation on the global stage. Key to this seems to be America's desire to see all countries adapt a more Western model of democracy, while China believes that development is the most important democratic right. What do you think of these narratives?

Mbeki: I think the current discussion, which has emerged very sharply, is this issue of multipolarity versus unipolarity, multilateralism vessels unilateralism. And clearly what is correct, is a multipolar approach, multilateral approach, which means therefore that nobody should be able to dictate from a unipolar position what the rest of the world should be doing. The world has got to develop, take different paths of development, because China will have a particular perspective about what it needs to do to develop. And another country may have a different point of view. That's got to be allowed. So I'm saying that at the center of it, is a need for the whole world, including the US, China, Russia, South Africa, everybody, to recognize this reality that we want a world that is governed on a multilateral basis and on a multipolar basis. If we can get all of that together, then it would be possible to achieve global stability and a shared perspective about the future of the world, of the globe. I think that is centrally what we need to do.

Guancha: This had also been emphasized by your predecessor, former President Nelson Mandela. You had previously been his Deputy President. What do you think are some aspects of Mandela that aren't so widely known? And given that South Africa's recent economic growth has been disappointing, with GDP per capita essentially flat since you left office, some have tried to pin the blame on Mandela. What do you think? How do you think he should be remembered by us all?

Mbeki: I think the way that people speak about Mandela is largely correct. This was a leading liberation fighter, for the liberation of South Africa from apartheid and all that. That's why he ended up in jail for 27 years, never broke, never surrendered. He’s an outstanding figure for liberation, was quite correct, together with ANC, to say South Africa has got a proportionally very large minority population who are settlers. If you look at the history of the continent, Algeria had a very big French settler population. At independence, they all left and went back to France. Look at the Portuguese colonies, Angola, Mozambique, the Portuguese left and went back to Portugal. Or the English from Kenya.

But in South Africa, no, they are not going anywhere. Those white original settler population, they’re South Africans. And therefore the issue arises in South Africa of this national reconciliation. People had been oppressed and oppressed, but they are citizens of one country. How should they live together? And I'm saying Nelson Mandela played a very important part in the process of addressing that particular challenge, which is very South African. And out of that situation of conflict and division, you still have to build that democracy which belongs to all the people of South Africa. And again, Nelson Mandela was a front line figure in that context.

The South African economy is in bad shape, as you indicate. It has nothing to do with Mandela, it has to do with the history of South Africa, its related to that same process of national reconciliation, because the effect is that the wealth of the country was and is in the hands of the people that colonize us. So they control the economy, the black population contains the politics. Now, what is it that you need to do? You need to get these people who control the wealth to have the same commitment to the future of the country as the black people who control the politics. That's been that disjuncture. For many years after South Africa's democratization, a lot of the capitalist class, which is white, had no confidence in the future of South Africa. And therefore they didn't want to invest, because (they’re worried) tomorrow is going to be bad.

Fundamental to it, it's the history. The history of South Africa produces dichotomy of white wealth, decision making about the economy being very much in the hand of the whites, and investment you need in the economy was also in white hands. So we need to persuade them, you have a responsibility as South African citizens to invest in your own national economy, instead of saying you're afraid of the future. That's what lies at the center of the economic crisis. There is a changed atmosphere in the country, such that the owners of wealth are now saying were ready to invest in the South African economy. (The poor economic situation has) Nothing to do with Nelson Mandela, it’s the history of South Africa.

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