Beijing Club提要：清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究专员周波在《南华早报》发文指出，特朗普二次访华虽以牛肉、豆类、波音订单等“5B”经贸成果为亮点，但核心突破在于双方确立“中美建设性战略稳定关系”新定位，美方首次正式承认中国的大国对等地位。

文章认为，中国实力上升、对美出口依存度下降是谈判底气所在。元首会晤虽未在台湾、伊朗议题上取得明显突破，但为分歧管控留出空间。周波判断，中美关系已进入即兴、摩擦但保持节奏的“爵士乐”式共存新阶段。

5月22日，周波在《南华早报》撰文评价中美元首会晤意义 图源：南华早报网页截图

【文/ 周波】

表面上看，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普此次访华之行，可用五个“B”概括：牛肉（beef）、大豆（beans）、波音飞机（Boeings）、投资委员会（board of investment）及贸易委员会（board of trade）。难怪特朗普会给这次访问打出“10分满分中的12分”。仅仅是中国同意购买200架波音飞机这一项，就已经让这次总统访问不虚此行。

中国同样收获颇丰。相比牛肉、大豆和波音订单，双方同意设立的投资与贸易委员会或许意义更为重大。在这一制度框架下，双边经贸争端可被纳入常态化监督与协调机制，美国动辄对华商品加征145%关税这类鲁莽行径不太可能重演。

中国展现了无可挑剔的东道主风范。习近平主席亲自陪同特朗普参观中南海园林是一项特殊礼遇——中南海既是国家元首官邸，也是中国最高决策中枢。特朗普对习近平主席及中国人民的盛赞显然不止于客套寒暄。

2026年5月15日上午，国家主席习近平在中南海同美国总统特朗普举行小范围会晤。外交部网站

然而，对中国而言，真正的胜利其实是这次访问本身——这是九年来美国总统首次访华；特朗普的前任拜登在其整个任期内都未到访中国。

中美元首会晤最重要的成果是双方就构建“中美建设性战略稳定关系”达成共识。显然，稳定只能建立在实力不分伯仲的两个大国之间——美国首次正式承认中国为对等大国。

这份“认可”来之不易。自特朗普首次出任美国总统以来，中美关系显著恶化，但中国却愈发强大。2017年至2025年间，中国对美出口依存度下降5.5%。在华盛顿发动的关税战中，中国动用稀土等关键工业原料作为反制手段，世界已经看到，中国不是率先退缩的一方。

不过，会晤在台湾、伊朗两大棘手问题上未取得突破。台湾问题是中方核心关切，特朗普既未转向明确反对“台独”，也未如中方所愿承诺取消对台数十亿美元军售。

但华盛顿将越来越感受到压力。如今中国拥有的反制工具，早已不只是抗议——制裁美国主要防务承包商、在台海举行更大规模、更高频次军演，均是有力反制。

美方很快将不得不权衡对台军售是否值得。在空军一号上，特朗普回避明确答复，仅称“你知道的，我们没必要飞越9500英里去开战”。

伊朗早已请求中方斡旋伊美和平谈判。特朗普访华前一周，伊朗外长阿拉克齐来华。伊美双方的诉求存在明显的差距：美方要求伊朗全面开放霍尔木兹海峡、停止高浓铀浓缩、终止支持地区武装；伊朗则要求美方停止军事打击、解除所有制裁、解冻海外资产并支付战争赔偿。

特朗普承认，中方确已发挥斡旋作用。但中方后续仍可继续推动双方聚焦首要任务，即同步宣布开放霍尔木兹海峡。这一点有可能，因为双方都不能接受僵局无限拖延：伊朗需石油收入维生，美国则担忧油价与全球市场进一步受损、自身形象下滑。

中方应明确告知伊朗不应向过往船只收费——哪怕豁免中俄船只，收费也明显违反国际法。无论伊朗经济因美制裁遭受多大损失，都无权向全球转嫁成本。

特朗普访华并非戏剧性转折点，却可能是中美关系重启的开端。靠大额采购缓和分歧的时代已一去不返，未来更像爵士乐：即兴、偶有混乱摩擦，却多少保持了节奏。

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On the face of it, US President Donald Trump’s China visit can be characterised by five Bs: beef, beans, Boeings, a board of investment and a board of trade. No wonder Trump rated his visit a “12 on a scale of one to 10”. Just the 200 Boeing aircraft China has agreed to buy is worth the presidential visit.

China has achieved no less. Compared with beef, beans and Boeings, the boards of investment and trade that both sides agreed to set up are perhaps more significant. With this institutional framework in place, bilateral economic and trade disputes can be brought under regular supervision and coordination. Reckless moves such as the United States arbitrarily imposing a 145 per cent tariff on Chinese goods should become far less likely.

China has acted as an impeccable host. President Xi Jinping taking Trump on a private tour of the gardens of Zhongnanhai – which serves as Xi’s official residence and the headquarters of China’s top leadership – is special treatment. Trump’s warm remarks about Xi and the Chinese people look to be more than a polite gesture.

Yet the real triumph for China is the visit itself – the first by a US president in nine years; Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden did not visit China at all during his term.

The best outcome from the Xi-Trump summit is their consensus to build “a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability”. Evidently, stability can only be established between two parties of equal strength – for the first time, the US officially recognises China as a peer power.

Such recognition has not come easily. Since Trump first became president, relations have declined significantly, yet China has emerged much stronger. From 2017 to 2025, China’s export dependence on the US has dropped by 5.5 percentage points. In the tariff war launched by Washington, Beijing has wielded several lethal weapons including key industrial raw materials such as rare earths. The world saw that China was not the first to blink.

Still, there were no breakthroughs on two tough issues at the summit: Taiwan and Iran. On the Taiwan issue, Beijing’s top priority, Trump did not move from America’s policy of not supporting Taiwan’s independence towards explicitly opposing it, nor did he promise to cancel the multibillion-dollar arms sale to Taiwan, as Beijing had hoped.

Yet Washington will increasingly feel the pain. China now has far more tools to push back against America than protests: be it sanctions targeting major US defence contractors or larger and more frequent military drills around Taiwan.

It won’t be too long before Washington has to decide if such arms sales are still worth it. On Air Force One, avoiding a definitive answer on whether he would proceed with the arms sale, Trump said: “You know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that.”

As for Iran, it has asked China to help secure peace with the US. One week before Trump landed in Beijing, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing. Neither side can completely accept the conditions demanded by the other. The US wants Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halt its high-grade uranium enrichment and stop supporting regional armed groups. Iran insists the US must end all military strikes, remove all sanctions, unfreeze its overseas assets and pay war damages.

What can Beijing do? It did help, as Trump acknowledged. Yet it can further mediate, even behind closed doors, to focus on the top priority – a simultaneous announcement by Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is possible in that neither side can afford to let the situation drag on infinitely. Iran needs oil revenues to survive while Washington must fear the war’s further damage to oil prices, global markets and America’s image.

Beijing should also make it clear to Tehran that it should not charge fees on any ship transiting through the strait. This is a clear violation of international law, even if Iran exempted ships from countries it deemed friendly, such as China and Russia. No matter how Iran’s economy has been damaged by US military strikes, it should not charge the rest of the world fees.

Trump’s visit to China was no dramatic turning point. But it could be the start of a reset of Sino-US relations. Gone are the days when China-US relations had to rely on big purchases to smooth over differences. The future of the relationship is more likely to resemble jazz: unscripted and messy at times, even full of friction, yet somehow maintaining a rhythm.

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