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杨洁勉:不会有新冷战,因为美国没那能力

2018-11-26 09:35:09
导读
中美两国在南海和台湾问题上采取的立场有可能导致正面冲突。越来越多的人把当前形势与冷战开始时的上世纪40年代末进行比较。一些人甚至谈到一场世界大战的意外爆发。

【文/ 杨洁勉】

去年12月以来中美关系的紧张态势引起全世界的关注。特朗普政府持续而系统地在战略、经济、外交和文化领域对中国发起攻击。美国去年12月发表的《国家安全战略》报告将中国定义为战略竞争者和主要对手,五角大楼有关中国军事和安全动向的年度报告也与此相呼应。此外,副总统迈克·彭斯在10月4日指责中国干预美国大选。特朗普总统对中国征收高关税,并威胁如果中国以同样方式回应的话还会加征更多。而在同时,中国决心不开第一枪,但是会反击。中国还与国际社会多数成员一道努力维护自由贸易,反对保护主义,捍卫基于规则的经济秩序。也因此很多人担心会出现一场新的冷战。

主要国家之间的分歧日渐加大,全球体系受到侵蚀。中美两国在南海和台湾问题上采取的立场有可能导致正面冲突。越来越多的人把当前形势与冷战开始时的上世纪40年代末进行比较。一些人甚至谈到一场世界大战的意外爆发。

但一场新冷战并非不可避免。首先,当前世界的大趋势是和平、发展与合作共赢。国际社会大多数成员都明白,在全球化时代它们比以往任何时候都更加相互依存,因此必须接受合作而不是对抗。虽然特朗普政府让美国退出了部分国际机构,包括巴黎气候变化协议、联合国人权委员会、中程导弹条约,但世界不会允许二战前发生的国际秩序崩溃再次重演,国际社会大多数成员仍然是主张合作的。最近的一个例子就是10月在布鲁塞尔举行的第12届“亚欧会议”(ASEM),亚洲和欧洲在这次会议上携手捍卫多边主义,批评保护主义。

其次,不具备新冷战的一般条件。上世纪40年代后期冷战发生时,美国与苏联几乎没有经济、文化和社会联系。后来两个超级大国建立了北约和华约,以及西方经济集团和经互会。现在的世界不再分成两个对立的阵营。整个世界都意识到,新冷战不仅有反作用,而且是灾难性的。全球化世界中的新冷战将为更危险的恐怖主义、极端主义和分裂主义提供温床,加剧社会的分裂和对抗。而且,新冷战会打破全球生产链。与上世纪40年代后期世界在对立的意识形态下分裂不同,如今国际社会绝大多数成员寻求的是进一步发展经济和改善生活。

第三,美国没有能力发动一场全面冷战。即使美国想发动一场新的冷战,也很难找到理由在美国国内说服美国人民,在国际上动员其盟国和友邦。美国人民已经看到足够的证据,证明正常的、合作的对华关系符合其自身利益,他们不会允许这种关系落入新冷战的陷阱。从国际上说,美国许多盟国和友邦都是中国的战略伙伴,它们不会选边站队。欧洲国家和日本正在谋求与中国建立独立的互惠互利关系。美国当局迟早会意识到新冷战是走不通的。

第四,中国会努力避免新的冷战。中国已经与上世纪40年代末和50年代初完全不同,如今中国是世界第二大经济体,拥有极大的影响力。中国正在通过一种新型国际关系努力构建“人类命运共同体”。面对美国发起的攻击,中国一再主张合作是中美关系的唯一正确选择,并坚持不对抗、不冲突、相互尊重、合作共赢原则。因此,中国的力量和智慧非常有助于世界避免新的冷战。

最后同样重要的是,中美关系已有了一些积极发展的迹象。中国在言论和行动上的反击是有分寸的,是克制的。美国国务卿和国防部长已经降低了他们的调门,开始谈及对话和沟通。最重要的是,习近平主席和唐纳德·特朗普总统将在11月底举行的阿根廷G20峰会上会面。人们可以谨慎乐观地认为,理性和政治家风范最终将占上风,中美关系将重新走上正轨。

附英文版

The tensions in China-US relations have caught the world's attention since last December. The Trump administration has consistently and systematically launched attacks against China on strategic, economic, diplomatic, and cultural fronts. Last December the US National Security Strategy report defined China as its strategic competitor and main adversary. This was echoed by the Pentagon's annual report on China's military and security developments. Moreover, on October 4 this year Vice President Mike Pence accused China of meddling in American elections. President Trump imposes high tariffs and threatens more if China reacts in the same manner. In the meantime, China is determined not to fire the first shot, but it will hit back. China also works with the majority of international community to preserve free trade, oppose protectionism, and defend the rule-based economic order. Therefore, many people are concerned that there will be a new Cold War.

Major countries' differences are widening. The global system is eroding. The two countries are adopting stances on the Taiwan question and the South China Sea that can lead to head-on collisions. More and more people are making comparisons between now and the late 1940s when the Cold War started. Some people even are talking about accidentally starting a World War.

But a new Cold War is not inevitable. Firstly, the present general trends of the world are peace, development, and win-win cooperation. Most of the international community understands that in the age of globalization, they are more interdependent than ever before. Therefore, they must embrace cooperation rather than confrontation. As the Trump administration withdraws the US from a number of international institutions, including the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the UN Human Rights Commission, and the Middle Range Guided Missile Treaty, the world will not allow the reoccurrence of the collapse of the international order that happened before WWII. On the contrary, most members of the international community still advocate for cooperation. The recent case in point is the 12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Brussels in October, at which Asia and Europe joined hands in defending multilateralism and criticizing protectionism.

Secondly, there are no general conditions for a new Cold War. When the Cold War took place in the late 1940s, the United States and the Soviet Union had few economic, cultural, and social contacts. Later on the two superpowers built up NATO and the Warsaw Pact, as well as the Western economic bloc and the Council for Mutual Economic Aid (Comecon). The present world is no longer being divided into two confrontational camps. The world as a whole realizes that a new Cold War is not only counter-productive but catastrophic. A new Cold War in the globalized world would provide a hot-bed to more dangerous terrorism, extremism and secessionism, and exacerbate social division and confrontation. Moreover, a new Cold War will break up the chains of global production. Unlike the late 1940s when the world was divided along confrontational ideologies, the great majority of the international community is for further development and a better life.

Thirdly, the United States does not have the capability to wage an all-out Cold War. Even if the United States wants to wage a new Cold War, it could hardly find reasons to convince the American people domestically and mobilize its allies and friends internationally. The American people have seen enough evidence that a normal and cooperative relationship with China is in their own interests and they would not allow this relationship to fall into the trap of a new Cold War. Internationally speaking, many allies and friends of the United States are China's strategic partners. They will not choose sides. The European countries and Japan are seeking independent and mutually beneficially relations with China. Sooner or later, the American establishment will come to realize that a new Cold War is a dead-end.

Fourthly, China tries hard to avoid a new Cold War. China is totally different from how it was in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Now China is the world's number two economy with a great deal of clout. China is striving for a Community of Shared Future For Mankind through a new type of international relations. In the face of the US-initiated attacks, China repeatedly advocates cooperation as the only right choice for China-US relations and insists on the principles of non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. Therefore, China's strength and wisdom can tremendously help the world to avoid a new Cold War.

Last but not least, there are already some signs of positive development in China-US relations. China's counter rhetoric and actions have been measured and restrained. The US Secretaries of State and Defense have toned down their voices and started to talk about dialogue and communication. Most importantly, President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump will meet at the G-20 Argentina Summit at the end of November. People can be cautiously optimistic that rationality and statesmanship will prevail eventually, and China-US relations will come back to the right track.

本文转载自“盘古智库”微信公众号。

杨洁勉

杨洁勉

上海国际问题研究院前院长

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